Big fight week - our predictions for UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic

Updated 15/11 - check the last minute changes to the fight card by following this link.

UFC 309 brings a lineup of thrilling matchups on November 16, 2024, at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Headlined by Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic battling for the heavyweight title, the event all but promises some unforgettable fight.

Below is the fight-by-fight breakdown and predictions for each bout.

Main Card (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)

Main Event: Jon Jones (27-1-0) vs. Stipe Miocic (20-4-0) – Heavyweight Title Bout

Two legends clash in the heavyweight division as reigning champion Jon Jones takes on former two-time champ Stipe Miocic. Jon Jones’s adaptability, unmatched fight IQ, and well-rounded game make him a challenging opponent for anyone.

Stipe Miocic - while coming off a loss against Francis Ngannou - has heavy hands, experience, and a strong chin, which could make this a competitive match.

Prediction: Jon Jones wins by unanimous decision.

Rationale: Jones’s range management, experience in five-round fights, and composure under pressure should allow him to control the fight, wearing down Miocic over five rounds.

Co-Main Event: Michael Chandler (23-8-0) vs. Charles Oliveira (34-10-0) – Lightweight Bout

In this (highly) anticipated rematch, former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira meets Michael Chandler. Their last match ended in a impressive TKO finish for Oliveira in the second round.

Charles Oliveira’s submission prowess and striking have obviously only improved since their last fight.

Michael Chandler - who recently was linked to a fight againsr Conor McGregor, in a fight which never materialized - is known for explosive striking and grit, looking to avenge his devestating loss.

Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins by submission in Round 3.

Rationale: Oliveira’s ground game and ability to capitalize on openings could force Chandler to make a mistake, resulting in a late submission victory.

Catch both men training ahead of their clash below in UFC's first embedded video.

Viviane Araujo (12-6-0) vs. Karine Silva (18-4-0) – Flyweight Bout

This flyweight matchup features Viviane Araujo’s speed and precision striking against Karine Silva’s well-rounded skill set. Araujo will look to keep the fight standing, while Silva has a dangerous ground game.

Prediction: Karine Silva wins by submission in Round 2.

Rationale: Silva’s grappling advantage might allow her to control the fight on the ground and potentially finish with a submission.

Paul Craig (17-8-1) vs. Bo Nickal (6-0-0) – Middleweight Bout

If you were not already excited by the fights above, you should be when undefeated Bo Nickal returns to the octagon this weekend.

Paul Craig’s jiu-jitsu skills and penchant for comeback submissions will be tested against wrestling sensation Bo Nickal. Nickal’s athleticism and grappling pedigree make him a formidable challenge.

Prediction: Bo Nickal wins by TKO in Round 1.

Rationale: Nickal’s wrestling dominance and striking improvements suggest he could overwhelm Craig before any submission threats arise.

James Llontop (14-4-0) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (10-1-0) – Lightweight Bout

James Llontop faces rising talent Mauricio Ruffy in a clash of skilled lightweights. Llontop’s technical precision meets Ruffy’s aggression and resilience.

Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy wins by split decision.

Rationale: Ruffy’s pressure and volume might give him a slight edge in a close contest that could go either way.

Preliminary Card (ESPNews/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET)

Jonathan Martinez (19-5-0) vs. Marcus McGhee (7-1-0) – Bantamweight Bout

Jonathan Martinez’s versatile striking style faces Marcus McGhee’s knockout power. Martinez’s technical approach could help him control the exchanges, but McGhee’s explosiveness is always dangerous.

Prediction: Jonathan Martinez wins by unanimous decision.

Rationale: Martinez’s ability to maintain distance and avoid heavy shots should lead to a decision victory.

Eryk Anders (16-8-0) vs. Chris Weidman (16-7-0) – Middleweight Bout

Chris Weidman, a former middleweight champion and future hall-of-famer - recently coming off a win after a few set-backs - takes on Eryk Anders in a battle between seasoned competitors. Weidman’s wrestling might prove pivotal, though Anders’ power and pressure can challenge any opponent.

Prediction: Chris Weidman wins by unanimous decision.

Rationale: Weidman’s grappling should enable him to control Anders, securing a victory by decision.

Catch the former's classic fight against Vitor Belfort below.

Damon Jackson (23-7-1) vs. Jim Miller (37-18-0) – Lightweight Bout

Veteran Jim Miller takes on Damon Jackson in a clash of experienced grapplers. Jackson’s youth may give him an edge, but Miller’s veteran savvy and grappling acumen remain dangerous.

Prediction: Jim Miller wins by submission in Round 2.

Rationale: Miller’s extensive submission skills and experience in deep waters might allow him to catch Jackson in a choke.

Jhonata Diniz (8-0-0) vs. Marcin Tybura (25-9-0) – Heavyweight Bout

Undefeated (!) Jhonata Diniz faces seasoned heavyweight Marcin Tybura. Tybura’s experience in high-stakes bouts might challenge Diniz’s undefeated streak, but Diniz’s athleticism and knockout power are noteworthy.

Prediction: Jhonata Diniz wins by KO in Round 1.

Rationale: Diniz’s speed and power could be too much for Tybura early on, leading to a quick finish.

Preliminary Card (ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET)

Ramiz Brahimaj (10-5-0) vs. Mickey Gall (7-6-0) – Welterweight Bout

Ramiz Brahimaj and Mickey Gall both bring a strong grappling game. Brahimaj’s submission skills have shown promise, while Gall’s experience against higher-level opponents adds intrigue.

Prediction: Mickey Gall wins by submission in Round 3.

Rationale: Gall’s experience and patience might allow him to secure a late submission victory.

Oban Elliott (11-2-0) vs. Bassil Hafez (7-4-1) – Welterweight Bout

Oban Elliott’s balanced approach will be tested against the resilient Bassil Hafez, who’s known for his toughness and durability.

Prediction: Oban Elliott wins by unanimous decision.

Rationale: Elliott’s consistency and game management could lead him to a clear decision victory.

Veronica Hardy (9-4-1) vs. Eduarda Moura (10-1-0) – Flyweight Bout

In this flyweight contest, Veronica Hardy brings experience against the fast-rising Eduarda Moura. Hardy’s stand-up will be put to the test by Moura’s aggressive style.

Prediction: Eduarda Moura wins by TKO in Round 2.

Rationale: Moura’s intensity and finishing ability could overwhelm Hardy, leading to a stoppage.

Catch UFC 309 live on Pay-per-view and ESPN+ for a night of unforgettable fights, intense matchups, and the possible crowning of a heavyweight legend at Madison Square Garden.

Also take some minutes to watch the countdown to UFC 309 ahead of the weekend.

Updated 15/11 - check the last minute changes to the fight card by following this link.